Around 2 or 3 a.m. Meteorologist Kevin Arnone and I were chatting on Facebook as the European numbers came in. He started talking about 12Zs, GFS, NAM and other way over my head terminology. The only thing I understood was “snow.”
This is what Kevin has to say now:
Updated Thursday 11:15 PM
Both the 00Z NAM and 00Z GFS have an area of light snow late Friday Night into Saturday Morning. Not much, maybe an inch or two.
The difference is the GFS model is really ramping up a coastal Low for Early Sunday Morning into the afternoon, which would be more significant snow. The 00Z has this same coastal Low developing much further off shore where it wouldn’t impact CT at all. Waiting to see what the 00Z Euro has to say.
The computer models have really been flipping back and forth past few days, which makes me have very low confidence in forecasting something 48 hours out. Stay tuned for more updates throughout the day tomorrow.
I woke up Thursday morning checked out the 12Z (Thursday 7 AM) runs for GFS and NAM and it’s beginning to trend towards a Low developing off shore for Saturday morning into Saturday Night. Which in English means a possible significant snow event! So we are not out of the woods yet.
The 18z NAM is now showing no snow for CT. So you think this is easy….. Depending upon where the Low sets up, we here in CT could receive a significant amount of snow. 12Z Euro indicates a light snow event for Saturday, few inches at the most.
Waiting for further runs for the GFS and NAM today before I raise my level of confidence in a significant event. Hopefully late tonight or early tomorrow I will be able to gather enough data and be confident on a accumulation map.
As of right now, Eastern CT according to GFS would be the Jackpot area, GFS is very aggressive and is spitting out 6-12 inches. But it’s way to early to even talk about amounts!
Stay tuned as I will update with every model run!
Put Kevin’s website http://ctforecast4u.com/ in your favorites.