From Meteorologist Kevin Arnone — updated 12 p.m.
After analyzing more data the past 24 hours, the Weather Computer Weather models are in much more agreement and are definitely trending towards a more snowy and colder situation.
One important factor when forecasting snow accumulations Meteorologist use something called “Snow Ratios.” For example the average snow ratio is 1 inch or precipitation is equal to 10 inches of snow. This usually changes from storm to storm, the warmer the surface temps are and as well as the atmosphere the lower the snow ratios will be.
However in this situation the surface temps will be in the 20’s with a very cold atmosphere which will see numbers WELL below freezing we could see snow ratios between 12-15 to 1. So every inch of precipitation will be 15 inches of snow. Most of the models are spitting out between .75 and 1.25 inches of precipitation.
Getting to the forecast, Snow will begin as a light flurries and very light snow around 7-9 a.m. Saturday Morning. Light snow will continue statewide throughout the afternoon and the evening. State wide by sunset I expect 1-3 inches of snow and then things get going!
Saturday: Heavy snow moves in around 6-8 p.m. and will continue until 1-3 a.m. During this window we may see snowfall rates 1-2 inches per hour in some locations.
However along the shore and extreme SE CT will have issues with mixing especially around midnight as warmer air pushes in from the south. This will affect snow accumulations greatly along the shore.
Very light snow inland and mixing along the shore will continue throughout the overnight hours but ending early Sunday morning 6-8 a.m.
Below is my snow accumulation map. Please share this with your friends and family!
Friday: High 30-33. P. Sunny. NW 15-20 mph
Friday Night: Low 13-22. Increasing Clouds. N 5-10 mph
Saturday: High 23-27. Light Snow Begins 7-9 AM. NE 10-20 mph
Saturday Night: Low 25-30. Heavy Snow. NE 15-25 mph
Sunday: High 35-38. Snow/Mix Ends Early AM. NW 15-20 mph
Sunday Night: Low 10-15. Few Clouds. W 10-15 mph
Monday: High 26-28. M. Sunny. NW 10-15 mph
Monday Night: Low 13-17. Clouds. S 5-10 mph
Tuesday: High 29-32. Watching a Potential Clipper. SW 5-10 mph