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Jan 022014
 

Snowfall059The latest from Meteorologist Kevin Arnone

After analyzing data from today, I am very confident in a forecast for the next few days.

Expect snow to begin after midnight tonight (Wednesday night) and continuing throughout the night and much of the morning.  This will be a very light snow falling at a light pace.  By early afternoon tomorrow only expect 1-2 inches.

There will be breaks in the action during the day tomorrow where the sun may even peek out for a few minutes.

As the storm moves off shore it will develop into a much more powerful organized storm.  This will occur late Thursday night.  A much steadier snow will fall sometime after 10 PM Thursday Night depending upon the exact track of the storm.  Winds will pick up; gusts of 40+ mph are very possible.

Snow will continue through the overnight hours on Thursday night and come to an end early Friday Morning.

When it is all said and done 5-10 Inches throughout the state of CT with some spots of 10+.

It will be very tough to get an accurate snow measure Friday Morning because of snow drifts!

One thing I am worried about is the wind chill values.

Thursday night wind chills throughout the state will be well below 0 degrees.

If you are outside make sure you wear layers.

Dec 122013
 

Screen shot 2013-12-12 at 3.02.26 AM

A note from Meteorologist Kevin Arnone:

I’m sure a lot of you have been hearing about the potential blockbuster winter storm this weekend.  Unfortunately for you snow lovers it doesn’t seem to be a major storm at this point, but we still have 3 days and many model runs in between for that to change.

As of right now (11 PM Wednesday) both the EURO and the GFS computer models have the storm approaching CT Saturday afternoon as snow then moving off shore and developing just too late to drop significant snow on us.

Both models seem to agree about warmer air pushing in early Sunday morning, which would more than likely change the precipitation type to a mix or even rain on the shore and then the storm is out of here late Sunday afternoon.

However all this being said, I’m sure you want to hear snow totals. It is still really early to be confident enough in making a forecast especially with this type of storm set up.

I am confident with the timing but as of right now (very well could change and more than likely will) it looks to be a 2-4 or a 3-6 type of storm (Inches).  The way the models have been trending (COLDER WITH LESS PRECIP) I would put my money on a 2-4 scenario.

I will be looking at more data tomorrow (Thursday) and hopefully the models don’t flip flop or play any games and I will have a more set in stone forecast for you.

Mar 052013
 

Screen shot 2013-03-05 at 11.34.42 PMMeteorologist Kevin Arnone loves forecasting weather just about as much as he loves going on vacation.

Even as he packs his bags, he still took time to file this report so we would be ready for what’s to come. Here’s what he has to say:

This will be my last update for the storm as well as for the week.  I am on vacation until the 16th of March and will not be able to update my website.  I am going on a cruise and I am lucky enough to leave out of New York in which I will be experiencing some monster waves from this nor’easter. I am forecasting 20-30 ft waves!!!! I will try and take pictures for the website.  Would you believe that I missed the Blizzard because I was in Vegas and now I’m missing this storm  :(

After this storm passes which will be during the day on Friday the next shot of rain will be on Monday/Tuesday on next week.  The 11th and 12th. Hopefully it doesn’t change LOL!

OK now on the nor’easter. Rain/Snow showers will start as early as noon. However I don’t expect to see anything steady falling in CT until after 5 PM in which it will start snowing for the entire state of CT.  Snow will continue throughout the overnight hours as well as the wind will pick up a lot, check below to see how fast the wind will roar in your town.

Two high tide cycles during this storm may lead to moderate flooding on the coasts, check below to see if you live in those towns.  Expect power outages and tree damage.  Under my advertisements tab you can check out two landscaping companies that will plow your driveway or business as well as tend to any storm damage you may have. Let them know you saw their ad on CTForecast.  The strongest winds and heaviest snow will occur during the overnight hours on Wednesday!

As far as during the day on Thursday is concerned, winds will still be strong but the precipitation will be very light and little to no accumulation will be added on.  Mostly light snow inland and a mix/rain on the shore.  The AM commute will be very slippery, please leave yourself extra time in the morning.  Most of the snow accumulation will fall Wednesday Night.  Lingering snow/rain showers will continue until early Friday morning, but no accumulation is expected.

Please everyone be safe, and I will be back on March 16th to continue forecasting the weather!

Check out the weather maps below for a better understanding of what Kevin is expecting for us.

Mar 022013
 

Screen shot 2013-03-02 at 12.33.07 PMMeteorologist Kevin Arnone offers this look at an upcoming weather system.

Both the GFS and EURO models have been consistently projecting the development of a significant Low Pressure System that really starts to ramp up off the coast of Virginia.  (If this were to play out) Even before this storm develops to it’s potential it would mean winds/rain/ice/snow for many states from North Dakota to North Carolina.  However when it moves off the coast of Virginia it’s projected to develop into a very large and powerful storm with a lot of tropical moisture. Typical Nor’easter!

The models have been hinting at this storm for the past week but consistently really kept the development of the storm too far off shore to impact CT, at most we would see some clouds and maybe drizzle/flurries.

However Thursday I began to notice a trend in the GFS model, a more northern track. Both the 00Z GFS and 00Z EURO Thursday Night models are beginning to trend the storm to move more northern which could mean big trouble for CT if this were to hold true.

I have had my eye on this storm for the past week and Thursday  was the first time a computer model has it hitting Connecticut with signifiant weather, so at this point it’s just something to watch, which I will be doing for all of you :)  

The latest 12Z Euro on Saturday and 12Z GFS on Saturday are keeping this monster storm off shore.  A bit to far to really impact CT but still a major storm for the area of Virginia and off the shore especially.

Feb 142013
 

Some folks actually like the snow.

Around 2 or 3 a.m. Meteorologist Kevin Arnone and I were chatting on Facebook as the European numbers came in. He started talking about 12Zs, GFS, NAM and other way over my head terminology. The only thing I understood was “snow.”

This is what Kevin has to say now:

Updated Thursday 11:15 PM

Both the 00Z NAM and 00Z GFS have an area of light snow late Friday Night into Saturday Morning.  Not much, maybe an inch or two.

The difference is the GFS model is really ramping up a coastal Low for Early Sunday Morning into the afternoon, which would be more significant snow.  The 00Z has this same coastal Low developing much further off shore where it wouldn’t impact CT at all.  Waiting to see what the 00Z Euro has to say.

The computer models have really been flipping back and forth past few days, which makes me have very low confidence in forecasting something 48 hours out.  Stay tuned for more updates throughout the day tomorrow.

Original story

I woke up Thursday morning checked out the 12Z (Thursday 7 AM) runs for GFS and NAM and it’s beginning to trend towards a Low developing off shore for Saturday morning into Saturday Night.  Which in English means a possible significant snow event!  So we are not out of the woods yet.  

The 18z NAM is now showing no snow for CT. So you think this is easy….. Depending upon where the Low sets up, we here in CT could receive a significant amount of snow.  12Z Euro indicates a light snow event for Saturday, few inches at the most.  

Waiting for further runs for the GFS and NAM today before I raise my level of confidence in a significant event.  Hopefully late tonight or early tomorrow I will be able to gather enough data and be confident on a accumulation map.

 As of right now, Eastern CT according to GFS would be the Jackpot area, GFS is very aggressive and is spitting out 6-12 inches.  But it’s way to early to even talk about amounts! 

Stay tuned as I will update with every model run!

Put Kevin’s website http://ctforecast4u.com/ in your favorites.