This model shows Sandy coming in between New York City and New Jersey.
Hurricane Storm Sandy Update: Oct. 25 @ 8pm
Category 2 Storm moving NNW over Bahamas at 17 mph over warm water. Current sustained winds at 100 mph and gusts of 125 mph and pressure at 965 mb.
Some Weather Model Talk:
The European Computer model or “ECMWF” which has been the most consistent over the past few days concerning Sandy now has the strong storm first making landfall south of NJ. But by no means are we out of the loop. The GFS Computer model, which has been all over the place concerning Sandy, now is beginning to shape up. Earlier in the week the GFS had Sandy way out to see but the latest 18z run brings the center of the storm south of the NYC area.
Sandy is a well-organized, big and strong CAT 2 storm right now and is expected to weaken to a CAT 1 Friday morning but still will pack a punch. Getting caught up in the category of a hurricane is sometimes a waste of time in my eyes because there are so many other factors that go in to the actual strength of the storm other then wind. Example being size and how fast it’s moving. For what it’s worth I also have been studying the NOGAPS Model which is the United States Navy Model. This one is along the same lines as the GFS Model.
The NHC as of 8pm on Thursday is forecasting the track of Sandy to make landfall between NYC and Central New Jersey, which may still lead to a very ugly situation for CT residents.
What am I concerned about and what should you do???
Sandy is a very strong storm and a rare one. If these forecasts hold true, Sandy will be making landfall moving in a North Western direction. Bringing ESE winds that will raise the storm surge in Long Island significantly. Problem with Long Island Sound is that the water has nowhere to go so it will cause coastal flooding.
Monday night is expected to be the worst of the weather. Monday night also is a full moon which will naturally cause the tides to be higher, 7 feet higher to be exact. If this forecast stands true we could be talking major flooding which will be much worse then what we saw last year during Irene. However I do not want anyone to panic,
I just want you to be aware and to pay attention to future updates concerning Sandy as a more “Set in stone” forecast will likely evolve over the next 24-36 hours. Also it doesn’t hurt to begin preparation for a situation where you may lose power for a few days.
I will be constantly updated my website (available by clicking on the weather tab on Orangectlive.com) as new data comes in but as always you can follow me on twitter and like me on Facebook as I have been posting up to the minute Sandy Facts.
If you have any questions feel free to email me @ MeteorologistKevin.Arnone@gmail.com