Kevin Doesn’t Expect A Monster Storm — Maybe 2-4″

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Dec 122013

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A note from Meteorologist Kevin Arnone:

I’m sure a lot of you have been hearing about the potential blockbuster winter storm this weekend.  Unfortunately for you snow lovers it doesn’t seem to be a major storm at this point, but we still have 3 days and many model runs in between for that to change.

As of right now (11 PM Wednesday) both the EURO and the GFS computer models have the storm approaching CT Saturday afternoon as snow then moving off shore and developing just too late to drop significant snow on us.

Both models seem to agree about warmer air pushing in early Sunday morning, which would more than likely change the precipitation type to a mix or even rain on the shore and then the storm is out of here late Sunday afternoon.

However all this being said, I’m sure you want to hear snow totals. It is still really early to be confident enough in making a forecast especially with this type of storm set up.

I am confident with the timing but as of right now (very well could change and more than likely will) it looks to be a 2-4 or a 3-6 type of storm (Inches).  The way the models have been trending (COLDER WITH LESS PRECIP) I would put my money on a 2-4 scenario.

I will be looking at more data tomorrow (Thursday) and hopefully the models don’t flip flop or play any games and I will have a more set in stone forecast for you.

How Does The Weather Look For the Busy Upcoming Weekend?

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Dec 062013

Screen shot 2013-12-05 at 11.04.09 PMWill nasty weather ruin the Orange Holiday Festival on Sunday? No one really knows for sure, THAT’S in the hands of Mother Nature, but the 7-day forecast from WFSB 3 may make you question how pleasant it will be.

This is what their chief meteorologist Bruce Deprest has to say:

Fri., Dec. 6: expect clouds and some rain highs around 50, but getting colder in the afternoon.

Sat., Dec. 7: SNOW and sleet in the early morning with spotty coating, then mostly sunny and breezy high around 42.

Sun., Dec. 8: Increasing clouds with snow and sleet during evening. High around 37.  

Mon., Dec. 9: Icy combination of freezing rain and sleet in the morning changing to rain in the afternoon. High around 46.

Tues., Dec. 10: Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain or snow showers, chilly and breezy. High around 42.

Wed., Dec. 11: Partly sunny, windy and colder. High around 36.

Thurs., Dec. 12: Partly to mostly sunny and cold. High around 35.

Rain In Today’s Forecast

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Aug 092013

Screen shot 2013-08-09 at 8.32.31 AMThe National Weather Service is calling for moderate to locally heavy rain for today into early this evening as a cold front moves through the region.

Be aware that localized flash flooding is possible.

Meteorologist Kevin Arnone says:

Friday: High 82-86. P. Sunny, AM Showers. SE 10-15 mph

Friday Night: Low 63-67. Clear. W 5-10 mph

Hit Or Miss? Kevin’s Forecast In English (And Geek Speak)

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Mar 022013

Screen shot 2013-03-02 at 12.33.07 PMMeteorologist Kevin Arnone offers this look at an upcoming weather system.

Both the GFS and EURO models have been consistently projecting the development of a significant Low Pressure System that really starts to ramp up off the coast of Virginia.  (If this were to play out) Even before this storm develops to it’s potential it would mean winds/rain/ice/snow for many states from North Dakota to North Carolina.  However when it moves off the coast of Virginia it’s projected to develop into a very large and powerful storm with a lot of tropical moisture. Typical Nor’easter!

The models have been hinting at this storm for the past week but consistently really kept the development of the storm too far off shore to impact CT, at most we would see some clouds and maybe drizzle/flurries.

However Thursday I began to notice a trend in the GFS model, a more northern track. Both the 00Z GFS and 00Z EURO Thursday Night models are beginning to trend the storm to move more northern which could mean big trouble for CT if this were to hold true.

I have had my eye on this storm for the past week and Thursday  was the first time a computer model has it hitting Connecticut with signifiant weather, so at this point it’s just something to watch, which I will be doing for all of you 🙂  

The latest 12Z Euro on Saturday and 12Z GFS on Saturday are keeping this monster storm off shore.  A bit to far to really impact CT but still a major storm for the area of Virginia and off the shore especially.

Meteorologist Kevin Arnone: Upcoming Weather Threats

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Feb 142013


 From Meteorologist Kevin Arnone’s weather page ctforecast4u
Next weather threat is for Saturday.  As of right now I’m very confident in no major nor’easter which were the first thoughts earlier this week, but the three main computer models (GFS, NAM and EURO) are all pretty consistent with painting a very light snow event starting Saturday morning into Saturday night.  
The earlier runs during the day on Wednesday were trying to put a few pieces of unorganized energy together but really were flip flopping back and forth.  So being the weather nerd that I am, I stayed up late Wednesday night and waited for all 3 models 00Z runs. All three are consistent as of right now with a early Saturday start and ending by midnight.

Just something to watch right now, I’ll see what the data does tomorrow before setting anything in stone, but I don’t want you to be caught off guard, so I figured I would share my thoughts.  

As of right now seems to be a light event, couple inches at the most. No major storm 🙁