Hunker Down, Hurricane Warning In Effect

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Aug 212021

The latest from the National Weather Service:
A Hurricane Warning remains in effect until further notice. The latest forecast calls for below tropical storm force wind with a peak wind forecast of 25-35 mph with gusts to 50 mph.
There is a threat to life and property that includes typical forecast uncertainty in track, size and intensity: Potential for winds of 74 to 110 mph — The wind threat has remained nearly steady from the previous assessment.
Plan for life-threatening wind of equivalent CAT 1 or 2 hurricane force.
Remaining efforts to protect life and property should be urgently completed. Prepare for considerable wind damage.
Move to safe shelter before the wind becomes hazardous.
POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Extensive – Considerable roof damage to sturdy buildings, with some having window, door, and garage door failures leading to structural damage.
Mobile homes severely damaged, with some destroyed. Damage accentuated by airborne projectiles. Locations may be uninhabitable for weeks.
Many large trees snapped or uprooted along with fences and roadway signs blown over. Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban or heavily wooded places. Several bridges, causeways, and access routes impassable. Large areas with power and communications outages.
STORM SURGE –  Little to no storm surge flooding. The storm surge threat has remained nearly steady from the previous assessment.  But, rough surf, coastal erosion, and life-threatening rip currents are possible.
Little to no preparations for storm surge flooding are needed. Follow the instructions of local officials and monitor forecasts.
A Flood Watch is in effect – Peak Rainfall Amounts: Additional 3-6 inches, with locally higher amounts. The flooding rain threat has remained nearly steady from the previous assessment.
Emergency plans should include the potential for major flooding from heavy rain. Evacuations and rescues are likely. Strongly consider protective actions, especially if you are in an area vulnerable to flooding.
Heed any flood watches and warnings. Failure to take action will likely result in serious injury or loss of life. Extensive – Major rainfall flooding may prompt many evacuations and rescues.
Rivers and streams may rapidly overflow their banks in multiple places. Small streams, creeks, canals, and ditches may become dangerous rivers. Flood control systems and barriers may become stressed.
In hilly terrain, destructive runoff may run quickly down valleys, and increase susceptibility to rockslides and mudslides. Flood waters can enter many structures within multiple communities, some structures becoming uninhabitable or washed away.
Many places where flood waters may cover escape routes. Streets and parking lots become rivers of moving water with underpasses submerged. Driving conditions become dangerous. Many road and bridge closures with some weakened or washed out.
Editor’s Note: Be prepared, and please be careful.
LOST PETS: As with any storm, your pets may become frightened and there is a possibility that some may run away and get lost. If that is the case, let us know ASAP and we will get the word out for you. Over the past 9 years Orange Live has had an excellent record for being instrumental in reuniting lost pets with their families.
If Duke or Fluffy runs away send a photo, time, date, location and your contact information to orangectlive01@gmail.com or text to 203-506-1747.  We’ll get the information out to everyone via our website, twitter and 4 Facebook pages. When it comes to pets, this town really rallies for its residents.
All we need in return is to know when you have your pet back home safe and sound.

Tropical Storm Warning In Effect Along Coast

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Jul 082021

A tropical storm warning is in effect until further notice mainly along the coast (Milford, New Haven, Guilford).
The wind assessment has decreased as the storm approaches. You can expect peak winds of 10-25 mph, with gusts up to 25 mph. Winds will be less than 39 mph — less than tropical storm force — but conditions may still be gusty according to the National Weather Service.
Ensure emergency readiness should the forecast change. The threat to life and property includes typical forecast uncertainty in track, size and intensity.
There is little to no threat of storm surge flooding. Rough surf, coastal erosion, and life-threatening rip currents are possible.
A Flash Flood Watch is in effect. An anticipated 1-3 inches of rain will fall, with locally higher amounts. Rivers and streams may quickly become swollen with swifter currents and may overspill their banks in a few places, especially in usually vulnerable spots. Small streams, creeks, canals, and ditches may overflow. Flood waters can enter some structures or weaken foundations.
Several places may experience expanded areas of rapid inundation at underpasses, low lying spots, and poor drainage areas. Some streets and parking lots take on moving water as storm drains and retention ponds overflow. Driving conditions become hazardous. Some road and bridge closures.
The current situation is somewhat favorable for tornadoes. Plans should still include the potential for a few tornadoes. Stay informed should additional weather alerts be needed. If a tornado warning is issued, be ready to shelter quickly.
The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the execution of emergency plans during tropical events. A few places may experience tornado damage, along with power and communications disruptions.  Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings, chimneys toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or overturned, large tree tops and branches snapped off, shallow rooted trees knocked over, moving vehicles blown off roads, and small boats pulled from moorings.
For more information, refer to these sites:

Heat Advisory And Severe Thunderstorm Watch In Effect Tonight

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Jun 302021

The heat advisory is in effect until 8 p.m. tonight

A severe thunderstorm watch is in effect until 10 p.m. this evening.
Anticipate damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph and higher. Secure any loose objects that could become missiles.

In addition, there is potential for localized to scattered areas of flash flooding Thursday afternoon into evening ahead of and along a slow moving cold front.

Kevin Prepares Us For Inclement Weather Before Going On Yet Another Vacation

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Mar 052013

Screen shot 2013-03-05 at 11.34.42 PMMeteorologist Kevin Arnone loves forecasting weather just about as much as he loves going on vacation.

Even as he packs his bags, he still took time to file this report so we would be ready for what’s to come. Here’s what he has to say:

This will be my last update for the storm as well as for the week.  I am on vacation until the 16th of March and will not be able to update my website.  I am going on a cruise and I am lucky enough to leave out of New York in which I will be experiencing some monster waves from this nor’easter. I am forecasting 20-30 ft waves!!!! I will try and take pictures for the website.  Would you believe that I missed the Blizzard because I was in Vegas and now I’m missing this storm  🙁

After this storm passes which will be during the day on Friday the next shot of rain will be on Monday/Tuesday on next week.  The 11th and 12th. Hopefully it doesn’t change LOL!

OK now on the nor’easter. Rain/Snow showers will start as early as noon. However I don’t expect to see anything steady falling in CT until after 5 PM in which it will start snowing for the entire state of CT.  Snow will continue throughout the overnight hours as well as the wind will pick up a lot, check below to see how fast the wind will roar in your town.

Two high tide cycles during this storm may lead to moderate flooding on the coasts, check below to see if you live in those towns.  Expect power outages and tree damage.  Under my advertisements tab you can check out two landscaping companies that will plow your driveway or business as well as tend to any storm damage you may have. Let them know you saw their ad on CTForecast.  The strongest winds and heaviest snow will occur during the overnight hours on Wednesday!

As far as during the day on Thursday is concerned, winds will still be strong but the precipitation will be very light and little to no accumulation will be added on.  Mostly light snow inland and a mix/rain on the shore.  The AM commute will be very slippery, please leave yourself extra time in the morning.  Most of the snow accumulation will fall Wednesday Night.  Lingering snow/rain showers will continue until early Friday morning, but no accumulation is expected.

Please everyone be safe, and I will be back on March 16th to continue forecasting the weather!

Check out the weather maps below for a better understanding of what Kevin is expecting for us.

Kevin Arnone: Lets Talk Hurricane Sandy

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Oct 252012

This model shows Sandy coming in between New York City and New Jersey.

Hurricane Storm Sandy Update: Oct. 25 @ 8pm

Category 2 Storm moving NNW over Bahamas at 17 mph over warm water. Current sustained winds at 100 mph and gusts of 125 mph and pressure at 965 mb.

Some Weather Model Talk:

The European Computer model or “ECMWF” which has been the most consistent over the past few days concerning Sandy now has the strong storm first making landfall south of NJ.  But by no means are we out of the loop.  The GFS Computer model, which has been all over the place concerning Sandy, now is beginning to shape up. Earlier in the week the GFS had Sandy way out to see but the latest 18z run brings the center of the storm south of the NYC area.

Sandy is a well-organized, big and strong CAT 2 storm right now and is expected to weaken to a CAT 1 Friday morning but still will pack a punch. Getting caught up in the category of a hurricane is sometimes a waste of time in my eyes because there are so many other factors that go in to the actual strength of the storm other then wind. Example being size and how fast it’s moving. For what it’s worth I also have been studying the NOGAPS Model which is the United States Navy Model. This one is along the same lines as the GFS Model.

The NHC as of 8pm on Thursday is forecasting the track of Sandy to make landfall between NYC and Central New Jersey, which may still lead to a very ugly situation for CT residents.

My Concern:

What am I concerned about and what should you do???

Sandy is a very strong storm and a rare one.  If these forecasts hold true, Sandy will be making landfall moving in a North Western direction. Bringing ESE winds that will raise the storm surge in Long Island significantly.  Problem with Long Island Sound is that the water has nowhere to go so it will cause coastal flooding.

Monday night is expected to be the worst of the weather. Monday night also is a full moon which will naturally cause the tides to be higher, 7 feet higher to be exact.  If this forecast stands true we could be talking major flooding which will be much worse then what we saw last year during Irene. However I do not want anyone to panic,

I just want you to be aware and to pay attention to future updates concerning Sandy as a more “Set in stone” forecast will likely evolve over the next 24-36 hours.  Also it doesn’t hurt to begin preparation for a situation where you may lose power for a few days.

I will be constantly updated my website (available by clicking on the weather tab on Orangectlive.com) as new data comes in but as always you can follow me on twitter and like me on Facebook as I have been posting up to the minute Sandy Facts.

If you have any questions feel free to email me @ MeteorologistKevin.Arnone@gmail.com